Let’s be clear. The impact of long COVID-19 is not just a health issue. It’s an economic one as well. It’s estimated that as many as 4 million Americans are out of work due to long COVID-19. The annual cost of those lost wages alone is about $170 billion a year.
Although the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 7m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 27m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 17.8m and 32m additional deaths.
Public facing industries, including teaching and education, social care, healthcare, civil service, retail and transport industries and occupations, had the highest likelihood of long-COVID.
Theocharis Kromydas, Evangelia Demou, Rhiannon Edge, Matthew Gittins, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Neil Pearce, Martie van Tongeren, Jack Wilkinson, Sarah Rhodes
But a massive new study confirms that COVID-19 — specifically, “long COVID,” which can kick in well after an initial infection — remains a significant risk even for those who had the mildest of cases.
A rough estimate pegs the size of the population affected by long Covid symptoms at between 7.7 million to 23 million people in the country, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that, as of 1 August 2021, 970,000 people in the UK were experiencing self-reported Long Covid. The most recent data from 2 January 2023, shows that this has increased to 2 million people – this figure is bigger than the population of the cities of Birmingham and Manchester combined.
Jenny Ceolta-Smith, Polina Sparks, Lesley Macniven, Clare Rayner, Kirsty Stanley
About 18% of people with long Covid hadn’t returned to work for more than a year, according to a report by the New York State Insurance Fund, state’s largest workers’ compensation insurer.
The overall labor impact of long Covid is tough to quantify. Estimates suggest hundreds of thousands to millions may be out of work, at a time when there are historic levels of job openings.
Long Covid has affected as many as 23 million Americans to date — and it’s poised to have a financial impact rivaling or exceeding that of the Great Recession. By one estimate, the chronic illness will cost the U.S. economy $3.7 trillion, with extra medical costs accounting for $528 billion.
Long COVID costs at least $60 billion up to as much as $100 billion a year in just lost wages. The annual cost of medical care for these patients may be another $100 billion. And those numbers don’t factor in decreased productivity from people working with severe fatigue and brain fog, or family members of long COVID patients who must reduce their work hours to take on caretaker roles. Acute COVID is a pandemic; long COVID could be a mass disabling event.
What puzzles me is why it is so difficult to understand that long Covid can be disabling and that not working isn’t really much of a choice. It is that getting well is the job. When most people do recovery, they do want to and need to work.
Denise Brodey
Senior Contributor - Award-winning advocate for disabled jobseekers and employees.
We show that Covid-19 illnesses persistently reduce labor supply. Using an event study, we estimate that workers with week-long Covid-19 work absences are 7 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force one year later compared to otherwise-similar workers who do not miss a week of work for health reasons.
On top of the toll it takes on their health, long Covid patients report a devastating impact on finances, including massive medical expenses and job losses.
Relative to my earlier estimate with Lawrence Summers of the cost of long COVID of $2.6 trillion, the higher number here is higher: $3.7 trillion in total. The higher estimate is largely a result of the greater prevalence of long COVID than we had guessed at the time. There are about 10 times the number of people with long COVID as have died of COVID.
David M. Cutler
Professor of Applied Economics, Harvard University
Date published: July 16, 2022
Date archived: Oct. 21, 2023
Statistics & Models
Economist
Institute working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute)
But, when I discern long-haulers by whether long-haul COVID affected work, I find that long-haulers who reported long-haul COVID affected work are 10 percentage points less likely to be employed and, on average, work 50% fewer hours than individuals without prior COVID infection.
In an October 2020 analysis, we estimated the then-nascent COVID-19 pandemic might result in $2.6 trillion of cost as a result of long COVID. Unfortunately, our estimate seems very much on target.
